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ÄÜԴʵ¼ÊÄÜÔ´ÄÜԴʵ¼ÊÄÜÔ´Äê·Ý ÐèÇóGDP¼Û¸ñÄê·Ý ÐèÇóGDP¼Û¸ñÖ¸Êý Ö¸Êý Ö¸Êý Ö¸Êý Ö¸Êý Ö¸Êý 1960 54.1 54.1 111.9 1972 97.2 94.3 98.6 45

1961 55.4 1962 58.5 1963 61.7 1964 63.6 1965 66.8 1966 70.3 1967 73.5 1968 78.3 1969 83.3 1970 88.9 56.4 112.4 1973 100.0 100.0 100.0 59.4 111.1 1974 97.3 101.4 120.1 100.5 131.0 105.3 129.6 62.1 110.2 1975 93.5 65.9 109.0 1876 99.1 69.5 108.3 1877 100.9 109.9 137.7 73.2 105.3 1978 103.9 114.4 133.7 75.7 105.4 1979 106.9 118.3 144.5 79.9 104.3 1980 101.2 119.6 179.0 83.8 101.7 1981 98.1 86.2 97.7 1982 95.6 121.1 189.4 120.6 190.9 1971 91.8 89.8 100.3 ×ÊÁÏÀ´Ô´£ºOrganization for Economic Co-operation and Development

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Coefficients:

Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.54950 0.09011 17.20 1.89e-13 *** log(X1) 0.99692 0.01911 52.17 < 2e-16 *** log(X2) -0.33136 0.02431 -13.63 1.39e-11 *** ---

46

Signif. codes: 0 ¡®***¡¯ 0.001 ¡®**¡¯ 0.01 ¡®*¡¯ 0.05 ¡®.¡¯ 0.1 ¡® ¡¯ 1

Residual standard error: 0.01801 on 20 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.9941, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9935 F-statistic: 1694 on 2 and 20 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

¸ù¾ÝÉÏÃæµÄ½á¹û£¬×ÔÓɶÈΪ£¨3£¬20£©µÄFͳ¼ÆÁ¿µÄPֵСÓÚ2.2e-16£¬Òò´ËÔÚ¸ø¶¨ÏÔÖøÐÔˮƽ5%£¬´ÓÕûÌåÉÏ¿´£¬Ñù±¾·½³Ì×ÜÌåÉϵÄÏßÐÔ¹ØϵÊÇÏÔÖøµÄ¡£Í¬Àíln(X1)ºÍln(X2)Á½Ïî²ÎÊý¹À¼ÆÁ¿µÄPֵСÓÚ0.05£¬ËùÒÔÔÚ¸ø¶¨ÏÔÖøÐÔˮƽ5%£¬¾ùͨ¹ý±äÁ¿ÏÔÖøÐÔ¼ìÑé¡£

ÓÚÊÇ£¬Ñù±¾»Ø¹é·½³ÌΪ£º

??1.55?0.997?ln(X)?0.331?ln(X) lnY12??0.997£¬¸ù¾Ý»Ø¹é½á¹û£¬²ÎÊý?˵Ã÷ÔÚÆäËû±äÁ¿²»±äµÄÌõ¼þÏ£¬1ʵ¼ÊGDPÖ¸ÊýÿÉÏÉý1%£¬¾Í»áʹÄÜÔ´ÐèÇóÖ¸ÊýÉÏÉý0.997%£¬ÓëÀíÂÛÄ£ÐÍÖÐÃèÊöµÄʵ¼ÊGDPÖ¸ÊýÓëÄÜÔ´ÐèÇóÖ¸ÊýÖ®¼ä´æÔÚÕý

???0.331£¬Ïà¹Ø¹ØϵÏàÒ»Ö£»²ÎÊý?˵Ã÷ÔÚÆäËû±äÁ¿²»±äµÄÌõ¼þÏ£¬2ÄÜÔ´¼Û¸ñÖ¸ÊýÿϽµ1%£¬¾Í»áʹÄÜÔ´ÐèÇóÖ¸ÊýÉÏÉý0.331%£¬ÓëÀíÂÛÄ£ÐÍÖÐÃèÊöµÄÄÜÔ´¼Û¸ñÖ¸ÊýÓëÄÜÔ´ÐèÇóÖ¸ÊýÖ®¼ä´æÔÚ¸ºÏà¹Ø¹ØϵÏàÒ»Ö£¬²¢ÇÒ|??2|?1£¬ÕâÀíÂÛÄ£ÐÍÄÜÔ´²úÆ·Ò»°ãÊÇȱ·¦µ¯ÐÔµÄÏàÒ»Ö¡£

£¨2£©¸ù¾ÝÌâÒ⣬½¨Á¢ÄÜÔ´ÐèÇóµÄÏßÐÔº¯ÊýÄ£ÐÍ£¬»Ø¹é½á¹ûÈçÏ£º Coefficients:

Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 28.25506 1.42149 19.88 1.21e-14 *** X1 0.98085 0.01945 50.42 < 2e-16 *** X2 -0.25843 0.01528 -16.91 2.59e-13 *** ---

Signif. codes: 0 ¡®***¡¯ 0.001 ¡®**¡¯ 0.01 ¡®*¡¯ 0.05 ¡®.¡¯ 0.1 ¡® ¡¯ 1

47

Residual standard error: 1.435 on 20 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.9939, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9933 F-statistic: 1627 on 2 and 20 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

¸ù¾ÝÉÏÃæµÄ½á¹û£¬×ÔÓɶÈΪ£¨3£¬20£©µÄFͳ¼ÆÁ¿µÄPֵСÓÚ2.2e-16£¬Òò´ËÔÚ¸ø¶¨ÏÔÖøÐÔˮƽ5%£¬´ÓÕûÌåÉÏ¿´£¬Ñù±¾·½³Ì×ÜÌåÉϵÄÏßÐÔ¹ØϵÊÇÏÔÖøµÄ¡£Í¬Àíln(X1)ºÍln(X2)Á½Ïî²ÎÊýµÄPֵСÓÚ0.05£¬ËùÒÔÔÚ¸ø¶¨ÏÔÖøÐÔˮƽ5%£¬¾ùͨ¹ý±äÁ¿ÏÔÖøÐÔ¼ìÑé¡£ ÓÚÊÇ£¬Ñù±¾»Ø¹é·½³ÌΪ£º

??28.256?0.981?X?0.259?X Y12??0.981£¬¸ù¾Ý»Ø¹é½á¹û£¬²ÎÊý?˵Ã÷ÔÚÆäËû±äÁ¿²»±äµÄÌõ¼þÏ£¬1ʵ¼ÊGDPÖ¸ÊýÿÔö¼Ó1£¬¾Í»áʹÄÜÔ´ÐèÇóÖ¸ÊýÉÏÉý0.981£¬ÓëÀíÂÛÄ£ÐÍÖÐÃèÊöµÄʵ¼ÊGDPÖ¸ÊýÓëÄÜÔ´ÐèÇóÖ¸ÊýÖ®¼ä´æÔÚÕýÏà¹Ø

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