题目： 上市公司业绩评价模型分析与研究

院（系） 信息学院 专 业 班 级 学生姓名 学 号 导师姓名 导师职称

2007 年 04月 18日

【摘 要】

市场经济中，开展上市公司业绩评价在理论、实践上均具有重要作用。无论是对政府转变职能和加强宏观调控，还是对公司改善经营管理，以及投资者及时调整投资决策，都有十分重要的意义。

构建模型必须建立在数据的基础上。在企业的总体业绩中，财务业绩占有主导地位。信息技术业增长速度快，创新能力强，整体素质好，具有其他行业所无法比拟的优势。因此，本文选取信息业82家上市公司的财务数据为样本，应用数据挖掘中比较成熟的统计分析方法，从13个财务指标中提取6个因子作为评价的主要指标，构建基于因子分析的业绩评价模型。提取的因子分别体现上市公司的：1）盈利能力、2）资产管理能力、3）偿债能力、4）特征能力、5）扩张能力、6）成长能力，从而可对公司的业绩从多角度、分层次进行分析，继此获得比较客观全面的评价。

本文借助业绩评价模型计算上市公司各指标得分及综合得分，根据综合得分情况进行排名，并撷取榜单中颇具代表性的上市公司，针对其业绩情况进行点评。

关键词：数据挖掘；上市公司；评价模型；因子分析

【Abstract】

In dealing with the rapid economic development, one cannot but admit that evaluation is of the essences in assessing financial performance. What’s more, it is not only sounds fine, but also really works. Most of us are aware of the fact that the financial performance evaluation is of great help to macro-control of the economy and enables government to focus on introducing changes in functions. Besides, the evaluation improves operating and managing methods in company, to some extent. It also offers the opportunities for individuals who can make adjustment of business strategies in time.

I’m glad to have the honor to present my idea of financial performance evaluation more detailed here. Coming to evaluating outstanding achievement, financial performance is dominant in one company’s whole performances. As we all know that data lays the foundation of calculating model. In the age of information and communication, IT plays an extremely important role. Compared with other trades, IT has its own superiorities in speed, creation& innovation and the high standard as a whole. For all those reasons mentioned above, I pick out eight two company’s financial data for samples and I select six factors out of thirteen as main indicators. In order to apply Data Mining to evaluating company’s performances, I build a model on a base of factor -analysis. The selected factors mentioned above has been measured by these six primary standards as follow: 1) the profitability of listed company 2) the charge of assets 3) the solvency 4) the characteristic ability 5) the capability to expand 6) the potential From those points of view, I make a close analysis of their performances. As a result, I get quite an objective assessment on those listed companies.

According to the feedbacks, the listed companies are listed in proper sequence. I choose some of them which appeared on both Top Ten and last ones. I make comments on those company’s performances.

Key words: Data mining; Listed companies; Assessment model; Factor analysis

目录

1 绪论 ............................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景与实际意义.............................................. 1 1.2对国外企业业绩评价研究与实践的简单分析 .......................... 1 1.3我国政府部门对上市公司业绩评价方法 .............................. 2 1.4建立上市公司业绩评价模型的意义 .................................. 3 2 上市公司业绩评价问题及解决办法 ..................................... 4 2.1业绩评价存在的问题 .............................................. 4 2.2财务业绩评价的基本指标 .......................................... 5 2.3分析方法 ........................................................ 6 2.3.1数据挖掘概述 ................................................ 6 2.3.2数据挖掘流程 ................................................ 7 2.4实证分析的原始数据 .............................................. 8 3 建立企业财务业绩评价模型 ........................................... 9 3.1因子分析 ........................................................ 9 3.1.1因子分析基本思想及数学模型 .................................. 9 3.1.2因子得分 ................................................... 10 3.1.3利用因子分析构建综合评价模型 ............................... 11 3.2构造企业财务业绩评价模型 ....................................... 11 3.2.1相关性分析 ................................................. 11 3.2.2确定主因子数目 ............................................. 12 3.2.3对数据处理结果的分析 ....................................... 13 4 应用业绩评价模型 .................................................. 17 4.1 应用模型计算上市公司综合得分................................... 17 4.2 结果分析....................................................... 18 5 结论 .............................................................. 19 5.1本文的主要工作 ................................................. 19 5.2本方案存在的不足 ............................................... 19 参考文献 ............................................................ 21 附录A............................................................... 22 外文翻译与文献 ...................................................... 29 致谢 ................................................................ 37