What is the forecast number of items to be sold in month 19? A 91 B 92 C 93 D 94 Answer：B

14.12 Based on the last 15 periods the underlying trend of sales is y=345.12-1.35x. If the 16th

period has a seasonal factor of -23.62, assuming an additive forecasting model, then the forecast for that period, in whole units, is

A 300 B 301 C 324 D 325 Answer：A

14.13 Unemployment numbers actually recorded in a town for the second quarter of the year 2000

were 4,700. The underlying trend at this point was 4,300 people and the seasonal factor is 0.92. Using the multiplicative model for seasonal adjustment, what is the seasonally-adjusted figure (in whole numbers) for the quarter?

A 3,932 B 3,956 C 5,068 D 5,109 Answer：D

14.14 Monthly sales have been found to follow a linear trend of y=9.82+4.372x, where y is the

number of items sold and x is the number of the month. Monthly deviations from the trend have been calculated and follow an additive model. In month 24, the seasonal variation is estimated to be plus 8.5.

What is the forecast number of items to be sold in month 24?(to the nearest whole number.) A 106 B 115 C 123 D 152 Answer：C

14.15 Which of the following are necessary if forecasts obtained from a time series analysis are to

be reliable?

1 There must be no unforeseen events 2 The model used must fit the past data 3 The trend must be increasing

4 There must be no seasonal variation

A 1 only B 1 and 2 only C 1,2 and 3 only D 1,2,3 and 4 Answer：B

14.16 What is the purpose of seasonally adjusting the values in a time series? A To obtain an instant estimate of the degree of seasonal variation B To obtain an instant estimate of the trend

C To ensure that seasonal components total zero

D To take the first step in a time series analysis of the data Answer：B

14.17 The following data represents a time series: X 36 Y 41 34 38 42

A series of three point moving averages produced from this data has given the first two

values as 38 39

What are the values of (X,Y) in the original time series? A (38,39) B (38,40) C (40,38) D (39,38) Answer：B

14.18 Using an additive time series model, the quarterly trend (Y) is given by Y=65+7t, where t is

the quarter (starting with t=1 in the first quarter of 20X5). If the seasonal component in the fourth quarter is-30, forecast the actual value for the fourth quarter of 20X6, to the nearest whole number.

A 63 B 546 C 85 D 91

Answer：D

14.19 The trend for monthly sales ($Y) is related to the month (t) by the equantion Y=1,500-3t

where t=1 in the first month of 20X8. The forecast sales (to the nearest pound ) for the first month of 20X9 if the seasonal component for that month is 0.92 using a multiplicative model is

A $1,377 B $17,904 C $1,344 D $1,462 Answer：C

14.20 Which of the following are necessary if forecasts obtained from a time series ananlysis are to

be reliable?

1 The trend must not be increasing or deceasing 2 The trend must continue as in the past 3 Extrapolation must not be used

4 The same pattern of seasonal variation must continue as in the past A I only B I and II only C I and III only D I and IV only Answer：C

14.21 Under which of the following circumstances would a multiplicative model be preferred to an

additive model in time series analysis?

A When a model easily understood by non-accountants is required B When the trend is increasing or decreasing C When the trend is steady

D When accurate forecasts are required Answer：B

14.22 In a time series analysis, the trend equantion for a particular product is given by TREND

=0.0002×YEAR2+0.4×YEAR+30.4

Due to the cyclical factor, the forecast for the year 2000 is estimated at 1.6 times trend. In whole units, the forecast for the year 2000 is? A 2,606 B 2,607 C 2,608 D 2,609 Answer：D

14.23 A company?s annual profits have a trend line given by Y=20t-10, where Y is the trend in

$?000 and t is the year with t=0 in 20X0.

What are the forecast profits for the year 20X9 using an additive model if the cyclical

component for that year is -30?

A $160,000 B $140,000 C $119,000 D $60,000 Answer：B

The following information is to be used for questions 14.24 ang 14,25

In a time series analysis, the multiplicative model is used to forecast sales and the following seasonal variations apply: Quarter 1 2 3 4 Seasonal variation 1.2 1.3 0.4 ? The actual sales values for the first two quarters of 2006 were: Quarter 1:$125,000 Quarter 2:$130,000

14.24 What is the seasonal variation for the fourth quarter? A -2.9 B 0.9 C 1.0 D 1.1

Answer：D

14.25 The trend line for sales:

A Decreased between quarter1 and quarter2 B Increased between quarter1 and quarter2

C Remained constant between quarter1 and quarter2 D Cannot be determined from the information given Answer：A

14.26 In January, the unemployment in Ruritania is 567,800. If the seasonal factor using an

additive time series model is +90,100, what is the seasonally-adjusted level of unemployment (to the nearest whole number)?

A 90,100 B 477,700 C 567,800 D 657,900 Answer：B

14.27 The following statements relate to Paasche and Laspeyre indices.

(i) Constructing a Paasche index is generally more costly than a Laspeyre index

(ii) With a Laspeyre index, comparisons can only be drawn directly between the current

year and the base year

Which statements are true? A Both statements are true B Both statements are false C (i) is true and (ii) is false D (ii) is true and (i) is false Answer：C

14.28 The following information is availabe for the price of materials used at P Co. Laspeyre index for price in 20X5 (with base year of 20X0): 150.0 Corresponding Paasche index 138.24 Calculate Fisher?s ideal index. A 12.00 B 16.98 C 144.00 D 288.24 Answer：C

14.29 A large bag of cement cost $0.80 in 20X3. The price indices are as follows. 20X3 91 20X4 95 20X5 103 20X6 106 How much does a bag of cement cost in 20X6? A $0.69 B $0.85 C $0.92 D $0.95 Answer：C

14.30 Four yeas ago material X cost $5 per kg and the price index most appropriate to the cost of

material X stood at 150.

The same index now stands at 430.

What is the best estimate of the current cost of material X per kg? A $1.74($5×150÷430)

B $9.33($5×(430－150)÷150) C $14.33($5×430÷150) D $21.50($5×430÷100) Answer：C

14.31 Six years ago material M cost $10 per kg and the price index most appropriate

to the cost of material M was 130. The same index now stands at 510.

What is the best estimate of the current cost of material M per kg? A $2.55 B $29.23 C $39.23 D $51.00 Answer：C 15 Budgeting

15.1 Which of the following may be considered to be objectives of budgeting?

(i) Co-ordination (ii) Communication (iii) Expansion

(iv) Resource allocation A All of them B (i),(ii)and(iv) C (ii),(iii)and(iv) D (ii)and(iv) Answer：B

15.2 What does the statement?sales is the principal budget factor?mean?

A The level of sales will determine the level of cash at the end of the period B The level of sales will determine the level of profit at the end of the period C The company?s activities are limited by the level of sales it can achieve D Sales is the largest item in the budget Answer：C

15.3 Which of the following tasks would usually be carried out first in the budgetary planning

process ?

A Identify the principal budget factor B Establish the level of salea demand

C Calculate the predetermined overhead absorption rate D Estsblish the organisation?s long term objectives Answer：D

15.4 QT Co manufactures a single product and an extract from their flexed budget for production

costs is as follows. Activity level 80% 90% $ $ Direct material 2,400 2,700 Labour 2,120 2,160 Production overhead 4,060 4,080 8,580 8,940 What would the total production cost allowance be in a budget flexed at the 83% level of activity? (to the nearest $)