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case of seat belts, instead of a simple, straightforward reduction in deaths, the end result is actually a more complicated redistribution of risk and fatalities. For the sake of argument, offers Adams, imagine how it might affect the behavior of drivers if a sharp stake were mounted in the middle of the steering wheel? Or if the bumper were packed with explosives. Perverse, yes, but it certainly provides a vivid example of how a perception of risk could modify behavior.
4亚当斯强调说，问题就在于自我感觉安全的司机们实际上对其他司机、骑自行车者、行人和自己车上的乘客来说是更大的危险(平均80％的司机系安全带，而同车后座的乘客只有68％系安全带)。风险补偿绝不仅限于驾车行为。亚当斯说，类似的还有表演高空秋千的艺人、攀岩者或摩托车手。如果在他们的安全等式上增添某种安全装置——比如说分别给他们一张救生网、一根保险绳或一个头盔——这个人可能就会试着做些平时认为很愚蠢的技巧性表演。因此，安全带并非简单、直截了当地减少死亡人数，而是对风险和死亡事故进行了更加复杂的再分配。为了说明其中的道理，亚当斯提出人们可以想象一下，如果在方向盘中间安一个尖头的木桩，司机开车时会受到怎样的影响?或者在保险杠上装满炸药呢?这简直是丧心病狂，是的，不过这确实提供了一个生动的例子，来说明人们如何根据对风险的判断来调整行为。
5 In everyday life, risk is a moving target, not a set number as statistics might suggest.
In addition to external factors, each individual has his or her own internal comfort level with risk- taking. Some are daring while others are cautious by nature. And still others are fatalists who may believe that a higher power devises mortality schedules that fix a predetermined time when our number is up. Consequently, any
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single measurement assigned to the risk of driving a car is bound to be only the roughest sort of benchmark.
5日常生活中，风险是不断移动的靶子，而并不像统计数据那样是个固定数字。除了外部因素外，每个人对于冒险都有自己内在的安全尺度。有些人天生大胆而有些人天生谨慎，还有些人是宿命论者，他们会认为，有一种更强大的力量设计了死亡时间表，预先确定了我们的死期。因此，对驾车风险做任何单一的测算所得到的肯定只是最粗略的基准数据。 Adams cites, as an example the statistical fact that a young man is 100 times more likely to be involved in a severe crash than is a middle-aged woman. Similarly, someone driving at 3:00 a.m. Sunday is more than 100 times more likely to die than someone driving at 10:00 a.m. Sunday. Someone with a personality disorder is 10 times more likely to die. And let's say he's also drunk. Tally up All these factors and consider them independently says Adams, and you could arrive at. a statistical prediction that a disturbed, drunken young man driving in the middle of the night is 2.7 million times more likely to be involved in a serious accident than would a sober, middle-aged woman driving to church seven hours later.
亚当斯引用了这样的统计事实作例子：青年男子发生严重撞车事故的概率比中年妇女高100倍。同样，在星期天凌晨3点钟驾车的人比同一天上午10点钟驾车的人死亡风险高出100多倍，有人格障碍的人比一般人死亡风险高10倍。亚当斯说，假如这个人还喝醉了，汇总所有这些因素并分别加以考虑，就会得到一个具有统计性的预测：一位心理失常又喝醉酒的青年男子在午夜驾车，7个小时后一位头脑清醒的中年妇女驾车去教堂，前者发生严重交通事故的概率比后者高270万倍。
6 The bottom line is that risk doesn't exist in a vacuum and that there are a host of
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factors that come into play, including the rewards of risk, whether they are financial, physical or emotional. It is this very human context which risk exists. That is key, says Adams, who titled one of his recent blogs: What Kills You Matters- Not Numbers. Our reaction to risk very much depends on the degree to which it is voluntary (scuba diving), unavoidable (public transit) or imposed (air quality), the degree to which we feel we are in control (driving) or at the mercy of others (plane travel), and the degree to which the source of possible danger is benign (\orders), indifferent (nature) or malign, (murder and terrorism). We make dozens of risk calculations daily, but you can book odds- that most of them are so automatic or visceral- that we barely notice them.
6问题的要点就在于风险并不是孤立存在的，它会受到许多因素的影响，包括承担风险所带来的种种回报——无论是财产方面的、身体方面的，还是情感方面的。这正是风险赖以存在的真实的人类社会。亚当斯说，这才是问题的关键，正如他把近期的一篇博客题目定为《关键的是置人于死地的东西，而不是数字》。我们对风险的反应多半取决于它在多大程度上是自发的行为(如戴水肺潜水)、是不可避免的(如公共交通)、还是强加给我们的(如空气质量)；取决于我们认为在多大程度上是我们能控制的(如驾驶)或是由别人控制的(如乘飞机)；还取决于这种潜在危险在多大程度上是出于好意(如医生的指令)、无意的(如自然因素)或恶意的(如谋杀和恐怖活动)。我们每天要做几十遍风险计算，但是可以确信的是，多数时候人们对风险的计算自然而然或者说是出自本能，以至于我们几乎注意不到我们在做计算。 Unit Nine
THE HOUSING CRISIS GOES SUBURBAN 住房危机走向郊区
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迈克尔·格伦沃尔德
在过去的五年里，弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯县的住房价格增长速度是家庭收入增长速度的12倍．今天，该县中等家庭不得不将其收入的54％用于购买位于该县的普通住房；在2000年，这个数字是26％。形势如此严峻，以至于费尔法克斯县最近开始对年收入90，000美元的家庭提供住房补贴；很快，这个数字可能提高到110，000美元。
1 Seventy years after President Franklin D. Roosevelt declared that the Depression had left one-third of the American people \ill-clothed and ill-nourished,\Americans are well-clothed and increasingly over nourished. But the scarcity of affordable housing is a deepening national crisis, and not just for inner-city families on welfare. The problem has climbed the income ladder and moved to the suburbs, where service workers cram their families into overcrowded apartments, college graduates have to crash with their parents, and firefighters, police officers and teachers can't afford to live in the communities they serve. 1富兰克林·罗斯福总统曾经说经济大萧条造成1／3的美国人住房简陋、衣衫褴褛、营养不良，然而70年后的今天，美国人却是穿着考究、营养日益过剩。但是，廉价房稀缺是一场日益加深的民族危机，而不仅仅是依靠福利为生的城市家庭的危机。这个问题已经波及中产阶级，并向郊区蔓延，在那里服务工作者及其家属挤在过于狭小的公寓里，大学毕业生不得不借宿在父母家，而消防队员、警察和教师在他们所服务的社区也买不起房。
2 Home ownership is near an all-time high, but the gap is growing between the Owns and the Own-Nots —as well as the Owns and the Own-80-Miles-From-Work. One-third of Americans now spend at least 30% of their income on housing, the federal definition of an \