conventional wisdom ,mandating the use of seat belts in 18 countries resulted in either no change or actually a net increase in road accident death.

3怎么会这样?亚当斯用风险补偿的概念来解释这些数据资料，这个概念就是：人们往往会根据他们意识到的风险程度的改变来相应地调整自己的行为。How can that be? Adams’ interpretation of the data rests on the notion of risk compensation , the idea that individuals tend to adjust their behavior in response to what they perceive as changes in the level of risk .亚当斯解释说，假设一位司机驾车途中要过一个窄弯道，这名司机是个男青年，那么他会受到自己对以下两方面认知的影响：驾车的风险和驾车的回报。Imagine ,explains Adams ,a driver negotiating a curve in the road.Let’s make him a young male .He is going to be influenced by his perceptions of both the risks and rewards of driving a car.他所考虑的东西可能包括：能够准时上班或准时赶赴朋友的饭局、让同伴对他的驾车技术留下深刻印象、使自己作为熟练驾车手的形象更加巩固。The considerations could include getting to work or meeting a friends for dinner on time ,impressing a companion with his driving skills ,bolstering his image of himself as an accomplished driver.他还可能考虑到自身的安全问题、长命百岁的愿望、对车上年幼乘客的责任感、撞毁自己的漂亮新车或驾驶证被没收的代价。They could also include his concern for his own safety and desire to live to a ripe old age,his feelings of responsibility for a toddler with him in a car seat, the cost of banging up his shiny new car or losing his license.这些可能的担心也不是孤立存在的。他还要考虑到天气和路况、交通拥挤的程度和所驾车子的性能。Nor will these possible concerns exist in a vacuum .He will be taking into account the weather and the condition of

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the road , the amount of traffic and the capabilities of the car he is driving.但亚当斯说，关键的是这个司机还将根据他对风险变化的判断来调整自己的行为。如果他系上了安全带，而他的车子带有前、侧气囊和防滑刹车系统，他驾起车来可能会更大胆。But crucially ,says Adams ,this driver will also be adjusting his behavior in response to what he perceives are changes in risks .If he is wearing a seat belt and his car has front and side air bags and anti-skid brakes to boot , he may in turn drive a bit more daringly.

4亚当斯强调说，问题就在于自我感觉安全的司机们实际上对其他司机、骑自行车者、行人和自己车上的乘客来说是更大的危险(平均80％的司机系安全带，而同车后座的乘客只有68％系安全带)。To point ,stresses Adams, is that drivers who feel safe may actually increase the risk that they pose to other drivers,bicyclists , pedestrians and their own passengers (while an average of 80% of drivers buckle up, only 68% of their rear-seat passengers do)风险补偿绝不仅限于驾车行为。亚当斯说，类似的还有表演高空秋千的艺人、攀岩者或摩托车手。如果在他们的安全等式上增添某种安全装置——比如说分别给他们一张救生网、一根保险绳或一个头盔——这个人可能就会试着做些平时认为很愚蠢的技巧性表演。And risk compensation is hardly confined to the act of driving a car .Think of a trapeze artist ,suggest Adams , or a rock climber or motorcyclist .Add some safety equipment to the equation -a net , rope or helmet respectively -and the person may try maneuvers that he or she would otherwise consider foolish .因此，安全带并非简单、直截了当地减少死亡人数，而是对风险和死亡事故进行了更加复杂的再分配。In the case of seat belts ,instead of a simple ,straightforward reduction in the deaths , the

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end result is actually a more complicated redistribution of risk and fatalities.为了说明其中的道理，亚当斯提出人们可以想象一下，如果在方向盘中间安一个尖头的木桩，司机开车时会受到怎样的影响?For the sake of argument ,offers Adams , imagine how it might affect the behavior of drivers if a sharp stake were mounted in the middle of the steering wheel? 或者在保险杠上装满炸药呢?这简直是丧心病狂，是的，不过这确实提供了一个生动的例子，来说明人们如何根据对风险的判断来调整行为。Or if the bumper were packed with explosives .Perverse ,yes, but it certainly provides a vivid example of how a perception of risk could modify behavior.

5日常生活中，风险是不断移动的靶子，而并不像统计数据那样是个固定数字。除了外部因素外，每个人对于冒险都有自己内在的安全尺度。In everyday life ,risk is a moving target , not a set number as statistics might suggest .In addition to external factors ,each individual has his or her own internal comfort level with risk-taking .有些人天生大胆而有些人天生谨慎，还有些人是宿命论者，他们会认为，有一种更强大的力量设计了死亡时间表，预先确定了我们的死期。Some are daring while others are cautious by nature .And still others are fatalists who may believe that a higher power devises mortality schedules that fix a predetermined time when our number is up.因此，对驾车风险做任何单一的测算所得到的肯定只是最粗略的基准数据。Consequently , any single measurement assigned to the risk of driving a car is bound to be only roughest sort of benchmark亚当斯引用了这样的统计事实作例子：青年男子发生严重撞车事故的概率比中年妇女高100倍。Adams cites as an example the statistical fact a young man is 100 times more likely to be involved in a severe crash than is a middle-aged women.同样，在星期天凌晨3点钟

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驾车的人比同一天上午10点钟驾车的人死亡风险高出100多倍，有人格障碍的人比一般人死亡风险高10倍。Similarly ,someone driving at 3:00a.m. Sunday is more than 100 times more likely to die than someone driving a 10:00a.m. Sunday. Someone with a personality disorder is 10 times more likely to die .亚当斯说，假如这个人还喝醉了，汇总所有这些因素并分别加以考虑，就会得到一个具有统计性的预测：一位心理失常又喝醉酒的青年男子在午夜驾车，7个小时后一位头脑清醒的中年妇女驾车去教堂，前者发生严重交通事故的概率比后者高270万倍。And let’s say he’s also drunk . Tally up all these factors and consider them independently ,says Adams , and you could arrive at a statistical prediction that a disturbed, drunken young man driving in the middle of the night is 2.7 million times more likely to be involved in a serious accident than would a sober middle-aged women driving to church seven hours later.

6问题的要点就在于风险并不是孤立存在的，它会受到许多因素的影响，包括承担风险所带来的种种回报——无论是财产方面的、身体方面的，还是情感方面的。The bottom line is that risk doesn’t exist in a vacuum and that there are a host of factors that come into play ,including the rewards of risk, whether they are financial ,physical or emotional .这正是风险赖以存在的真实的人类社会。亚当斯说，这才是问题的关键，正如他把近期的一篇博客题目定为《关键的是置人于死地的东西，而不是数字》。It is this very human context in which risk exists .That is key ,says Adams ,who titled one of his recent blogs ;What kills you matters -not numbers.我们对风险的反应多半取决于它在多大程度上是自发的行为(如戴水肺潜水)、是不可避免的(如公共交通)、还是强加给我们的(如空气质量)；取决于我

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