论我国对外贸易依存度的特征及其影响

摘 要

外贸依存度反映了一定时期内一国经济发展对外贸的依赖程度。中国自改革开放以来，外贸依存度节节攀高，自从2001年中国加入世界贸易组织以后，外贸环境得到了进一步改善，外贸依存度更是急剧攀升。我国外贸依存度的急剧攀升引起了各方的关注，专家学者对我国外贸依存度的高低各有看法。那么我国的外贸依存度到底高不高，它受什么因素的影响，它的测算是否合理，它的变化有何特点,伴随着外贸依存度的提高又会给我国的外贸安全带来哪些风险，我们应该如何应对这些风险呢，在此，笔者提出了扩大内需、加快加工贸易升级转型、转变贸易增长方式、建立完善的外贸体系指标等政策性建议。这些都是本文需要研究的问题。

关键词： 外贸依存度；加工贸易；贸易结构；

1

Abstract

The ratio of both export and import to GDP reflects the degree of dependence

of one country or region’s economy on foreign trade in a certain period. Since China has implemented the reform and open policy, the degree of dependency on foreign trade has climbed up successively. After China entered into the World Trade Organization in 2001, the foreign trade environment has improved further, and the degree of dependency on foreign trade climbs up suddenly. In the last few years, the fast increase of China’s degree of dependence on foreign trade has caused much concern. They have different views on this problem. Whether the degree of dependency on foreign trade in our country is high or not? What factors can influence it? Is the calculation reasonable? What are the characteristics of the change in it? Which risks will exist with the rapid increase of the degree of dependence on foreign trade? How we should deal with these risks? In this the author proposes some suggestions: expanding domestic demand, changing the growth way of foreign trade, speeding up the step of the escalation of processing trade, establishing a better system of foreign trade indexes etc. These questions are what this paper tries to answer.

Key words: Degree of dependence on Foreign Trade；Improvement Trade；Trade structure；

2

目 录

摘 要 ............................................................. 1 Abstract .......................................................... 2 引言 .............................................................. 4 1. 外贸依存度理论综述 ............................................ 5

1.1.外贸依存度的涵义及计算方法 .................................. 5 1.2 影响外贸依存度的主要因素 .................................... 5 2. 我国外贸依存度的现状与特点分析 ................................ 7

2.1.外贸依存度的纵向比较 ........................................ 7 2.2.外贸依存度的横向比较 ........................................ 8 3. 我国外贸依存度所反映的问题 ................................... 10

3.1.贸易伙伴过于集中、贸易发展不平衡 ........................... 10 3.2.加工贸易主导的风险 ......................................... 10 4. 我国外贸依存度的提高对我国的经济影响 ......................... 12

4.1.外贸依存度不断提高带来的积极影响 ........................... 12 4.2.外贸依存度不断提高带来的消极影响 ........................... 13 5. 对我国外贸依存度的政策性建议 ................................. 14

5.1.坚持扩大内需的方针 ......................................... 14 5.2.加强对加工贸易的引导作用 ................................... 14 5.3.调整出口商品目的国，积极开拓新的市场 ....................... 15 5.4.完善人民币汇率形成机制 ..................................... 15 5.5建立和完善外贸指标体系和预警机制............................ 15 结 束 语 ......................................................... 17 参 考 文 献 ...................................................... 18 致 谢 ........................................... 错误！未定义书签。

3

引言

改革开放近30年来，中国经济的持续高速增长，使得中国经济与世界经济进一步融合，受世界经济的影响风险也在进一步变大。而我国经济增长主要的因素是外商投资和出口增长，特别是近几年来，我国的进出口总额的增长速度明显高于我国GDP的增长速度，外贸依存度不断攀升,直到去年金融危机的到来，我国的外贸依存度急剧下降，高外贸依存度给我国经济带来了巨大的安全隐患，而低外贸依存度则显示了经济的萧条，我们要通过宏观调控来刺激经济的发展。为此，我们有必要正确审视我国现有的外贸依存度及其对我国经济的影响和对策。本文将从外贸依存度的计算方法及影响因素对此进行分析。

4